本网编译:拉扎表示要降低利率来抵制通货膨胀

By Naween A. Mangi

March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Pakistan’s central bank Governor Syed Salim Raza said Asia’s highest interest rates will be gradually reduced this year, ruling out steep cuts that may fuel inflation.

“The risk of too sharp a cut is to convey the feeling that the battle against inflation has been won and unfortunately, that’s not true,” Raza said in an interview in Karachi yesterday. “Too sharp a cut would seem to be populist, premature or succumbing to pressure. I would err on the side of gradualism and do it in stages.”

State Bank of Pakistan raised borrowing costs five times in the past 18 months as inflation accelerated to a three-decade high and domestic political turmoil distracted the government. Gradual reductions may not be enough to revive the economy as the global recession curbs demand for Pakistan’s exports.

“Now is the time to be aggressive and cutting the policy rate by 200 basis points in April will be aggressive,” said Nasim Beg, who manages the equivalent of $118.6 million in stocks and bonds at Arif Habib Investments Ltd. in Karachi. “That’s what the economy needs.”

A widening rift between President Asif Ali Zardari and his former ally Nawaz Sharif is distracting the government from tackling the economic slowdown and deteriorating security.

Lawyers, backed by Sharif, began a four-day protest march on March 12, and plan to converge on the capital Islamabad on March 16. Political tensions flared last month when Sharif accused Zardari of backing a Supreme Court ruling that barred the former premier from running for public office.

Room to Cut

The Asian nation may have room to cut rates if inflation keeps slowing, the International Monetary Fund said last month. Foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank have risen to $6.6 billion on March 7 after falling to $3.5 billion in October.

“With things going in the right direction, the stage is set within the next couple of months for an opportunity to lower the rate,” Raza, who took over as governor in January, said.

While inflation has declined from a three-decade high reached in August, prices accelerated for the first time in four months in February as food costs rose.

The central bank predicts inflation may ease to 11 percent by June from 21.07 percent last month.

Former Governor Shamshad Akhtar increased the central bank’s discount rate to slow inflation and help shore up Pakistan’s foreign-exchange reserves. The country was forced to turn to the IMF for a $7.6 billion rescue package last year after its reserves shrank 75 percent in a year to $3.45 billion.

Higher borrowing costs have dented growth in the economy, which is predicted by the government to expand 2.5 percent this fiscal year to June 30, down from 5.8 percent last year.

“Monetary policy actions should be based on future expectations,” said Farid Khan, director at Credit Suisse Pakistan in Karachi. “Inflation will fall sharply and hence there is room for interest rate cuts this calendar year.”

Khan expects a reduction of up to one percentage point at the central bank’s next monetary-policy review in April and another cut by July. 

拉扎表示要降低利率来抵制通货膨胀

作者： Naween A. Mangi

      3月14日（彭博 ）—— 巴基斯坦国国家银行行长赛义德萨利姆拉扎表示，亚洲今年将逐渐降低银行利率，排除急剧下降的可能，可能助长通货膨胀。

       “冒着大幅度降价的风险是为了传达战胜通货膨胀的信心，但是不幸的是，这是不可能的。” 拉扎昨天在卡拉奇接受采访时说，“太迅猛的一个降价似乎是某些人的想法，思想太不成熟或者被通货膨胀屈服了。我曾经在过于坚持渐进主义上面犯过错误，我把他叫做阶段性错误。”

      巴基斯坦国家银行在过去的18个月五次上涨贷款利率，因为通货膨胀率达到了的三十年来的大值，并且国内政治动乱分散了政府的注意力。逐渐降低利率可能不足以促进经济复苏，因为经济衰退抑制了需求，影响了巴基斯坦的出口额度。

       “现在有一个利好消息，今年4月政府可能发布政策，削减利率200个基点。”纳西姆贝格说，他是阿里夫哈比比投资有限公司卡拉奇分公司的经理，管理着价值1.186亿美元的股票和债券。 “这个政策的发布是经济的需要。”

总统阿西夫阿里扎尔达里和他的前盟友谢里夫之间的裂痕日益扩大，导致经济增长衰退，社会安全恶化，政府岌岌可危。

      支持里夫的律师，他们在3月12日开始为期4天的抗议游行，并计划3月16日在首都伊斯兰堡集中。政治紧张局势的爆发是因为上个月高法院指责扎尔达里沙里夫，禁止前总理竞选公职的裁决。

      降息空间

      国际货币基金组织上个月表示，如果通货膨胀继续放缓，亚洲国家还有降息的可能。中央银行外汇储备3月7日上升到66亿美元，而10月份低曾跌至35亿美元。

      “随着事态朝着正确的方向前进，银行利息在未来几个月内有降低的可能性，”拉扎，1月份新任银行行长。

而通货膨胀率在8月份达到了30年来的高点，目前已经下降。从 2月份食品价格上涨，接下来4个月，价格首次加速增长。

      中央银行预计通货膨胀率会从7月的21.7%，降低到上月的11%。

      前总统沙姆沙德阿赫塔尔增加中央银行的贴现率，在缓和通货膨胀的同时帮助巴基斯坦增加外汇储备。该国在求助于国际货币基金组织的76亿美元的拯救计划后，去年国家外汇储备减少了75%，降到34.5亿美元。

      借贷成本上升已经影响了经济增长，到6月30日，本财年度该国政府预测经济增长率为2.5%，低于去年的5.8%。

       “货币政策应基于对未来的期望”法里德汗说，巴基斯坦卡拉奇信贷公司的执行董事。 “通货膨胀率将会急剧下降，因此本年度会有降息的空间。 ” 

      央行下次于4月份的货币政策审查中，汗预计会有一个多百分点的降息幅度，另一次降息会发生在7月。